House prices, economy, outlook 2008

[keithcdb]

Originally Posted by montytronix

errr WTF paid for all the oil refinery infrastructure technology etc etc to get the bloody stuff in the first place?

it certainly wasnt rab C Nesbit !! lol

We never got a chance! All you english folk said "oh.... theres oil! lets go get it!"

[MSG]

I thought the future was exponential hence all things will rise sharply as expected, remember an exponential curve starts very slow and rising almost linearly as the years progress the exponential effect becomes more prominent and starts to rise sharply and higher, hence steep price rises effecting almost every item, wages, house prices, wages, food, oil, nothing will get spared. We have to move along this exponential curve.

And I remember not too long ago, may be less than a decade, we never spoke in terms of Billions, and it was always tens of or undreds of millions, but now nothing seems to be spoken in less than several billion pounds!!!

[neil105]

have you ever worked on the rigs,every thing comes from the states even scrubbing brushes

[montytronix]

funny tho aint it? lol
i love the scots / scottish women are sexy as voted by numerous italian studs in Rome apparentlyMy strife is of scottish blood

[montytronix]

Originally Posted by neil105

have you ever worked on the rigs,every thing comes from the states even scrubbing brushes

paid by us but made in china sent via USA?
lol

[tomstickland]

One thing that always strikes me about MIG is that there are a lot of perceptive people on here.

[montytronix]

its good for a laugh and makes a change from stuck oil relief valves / idle problems etc etc

got any jobs near worcester anyone????

[SRimon]

Originally Posted by j17sparky

But back then the average person wasnt borrowing £200k. At 15% with a mortgage over 35 years the repayments on £200k are £2518.91pm (£2500pm interest only). iirc the average wage is £24k pa, which is £2000pm before tax.

If interest rates ever do hit 15% again it will make the 90s look like feck all.

It never will...

Like lethal and I said, 7% will feel like 15% to most of us if it goes up again! Look at what happened when it went up .75% over the last 18 months.

Its a lot of opinion based arguement. Depends who you want to listen too.

I agree its just plain stupid, I bought my house in Jan 07, for 155k, an identical one a few doors up is now 170k. I don't see my house is worth that! You have to consider the relative interest rates. My parents bought in 1991 at 80k on 14% i think it was. Now its 5% thats a 1/3 less which equates to a big jump already in house price. Coupled to the fact inflation alone has doubled the house prices, its not going to drop anymore than 15-20% in my eyes.

[j17sparky]

Originally Posted by SRimon

Now its 5%

No its not. Well it is but you try and get a mortgage with anywhere near a 5% interest rate. From having a quick look the lowest seems to be around 6% and the average at around 7%.

[CraigGreen]

Originally Posted by tomstickland

The news has been a great source of entertainment recently, mainly watching the car-crash that is the housing market, economy and demise of Gordon Brown's government.

House prices are falling, construction stopped, household budgets stretched by fuel, energy and food prices. Then mortgage rises for those who are trapped when cheap deals run out.

Meanwhile we continue to see a rise in taxation and ever more zealous application of the law. Think of parking cameras picking you up for dropping someone off in a bus stop, clamping, the car tax clampers who wanted the vehicle that had one wheel on the pavement.

Personally I think that as money becomes tighter those who work for a living will start to be become every more disheartened and possibly aggressive.

Reading that makes me want to end my life.... Off to gas myself in the car. Not sure if I can afford the fuel though.


Seriously though, this country is really going up the creek as of late. Me & my Mrs are on fairly low income & the monthly budget is becoming noticeably more stretched literally every month. Labour need to be ousted with immediate effect. I've no idea if they are entirely to blame but lets see what a rejuvenated Conservative can do.

No wonder so many chavs are out on the rob or people grow cannabis etc. Tax free earnings FTW.

[Brett]

dont worry everybody, its OK!!

Those of us effected by the income tax fiasco where they robbed the lowest earners and rewarded higher earners, we are saved. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have saved us! Apparently, they are upping the level at which we start to pay tax by £600 which will negate the extra we pay elsewhere. Its just a shame they are keeping quiet its for one year only, next year we'll have to bend over and cough it up. TYPICAL labour sad fact is most Labour root support wont recognise that and bang on about Thatcher or something irrelevant

I need a cash in hand job.

Never going to get anywhere here, my tax burden is going through the roof regardless of Browns income tax cons, and they are so obssesed with the house market everything is geared toward pinning that up and meanwhile theres NR, Fuel prices, food prices etc etc basically being ignored in the background. Personally I dont really see why we should pay to support people who have over strecthed themselves for a house, the sooner theres a significant drop the better.

Theres no sense to be had from contributing such vast quantites of our meagre incomes on houses just because we're told thats what they are worth, we cant lose money (AHAHAHHA) get on the property ladder etc etc

[j17sparky]

Have a word with CraigGreens mates, im sure they could do with a hand selling their merchendise

[lethal]

Originally Posted by SRimon

Coupled to the fact inflation alone has doubled the house prices, its not going to drop anymore than 15-20% in my eyes.

Horrible thing about percentage increase/decrease which not many realise.

If you have a 100% increase, you only need a 50% decrease to get all the way back to where you started.

[montytronix]

i will never work in a permanent job again the national insurance / the income tax is a real hike

i have been doing temp contracts for the last 10 years it proves very tax efficient and tax gorge brown knows this
there are many pro's as consultants doing this to avoid tax not just idiots like me......surgens / doctors etc etc could you image 10% national insurance on a doctor?
hmmm close to 10k.....

the10% tax drop is also an admission of guilt that the flood of low paid EU workers probably is more detrimental to the economy as billions needs to be spent on infrastructure to cope with it / how many of these are here on the dole claiming benefits?

There is a skills shortage due to lack of training and investment by govt and employers saving money plus we are now seeing record emigration thus a huge brain drain effect as labour fu££s up the country

to simply bribe ppl for a one off payment is pathetic there record on alleged corruption is also pathetic
alleged: passport for an alleged £5 anyone? peerage for an alleged £10? BMW do you want to allegedly fck up rover and allegedly maintain your sales *cough for a small fee allegedly? it really is a suprise that they still havent concluded the alleged rover raping-how long does it take to nail a group of ppl? - waiting for another disaster to bury the bad news probably...... no other country would have let this happen

Send our troops off to iraq without proper equipment under the pathetic excuse that if we did then sadders will know what going to happen? it took months to get it started ....lettng them getting blown up in tin cans..........jeezas
But as long as phoneyB and his lady make millions from their book sales........the cheque should cover any guilt

Pensions fkkd by gorge brown in first year of office and still he has not done anything to help?

....good ridence gordge and your half wits-you guys had so much power to do great things but all they were doing was getting allegedly obsessed with tax / votes and donations
A real shame-shame on them-shame on the alleged idiots would voted for the alleged idiots

Emperors new clothes anyone?

[j17sparky]

Originally Posted by Brett

Personally I dont really see why we should pay to support people who have over strecthed themselves for a house, the sooner theres a significant drop the better.

If they lose their house its called "tough". They shouldnt have been greedy and impatient. I understand everyone needs somewhere to live but i also know people who have families to support who heeded the advice of not overstreching themselves and if needs be rent instead of buy.

Id love a house of my own but im not stupid and selfish enough to think that it is my right to have one now and if i feck up then it is my right to be bailed out.

[Jack]

I'm not very perceptive at the best of times, but I saw this coming a mile off. If you'd have asked me years ago, I'd have told you it would end up like this.

As soon as there was mention of putting everything on a database, catching everyone on a speed camera, tax increase, tax increase, hidden taxes, speed cameras, borrow loads of money to buy a house that's not worth it's value, people spending more than they're earning...etc, I knew it was going to end up like this.

We need someone assertive with their head screwed on right to come and say "what does this department do? Why are we paying for this? Why is this camera here? What is the WHGMSA department in Bristol doing? Where is all of our money going?"

[Brett]

Originally Posted by j17sparky

If they lose their house its called "tough". They shouldnt have been greedy and impatient. I understand everyone needs somewhere to live but i also know people who have families to support who heeded the advice of not overstreching themselves and if needs be rent instead of buy.

Id love a house of my own but im not stupid and selfish enough to think that it is my right to have one now and if i feck up then it is my right to be bailed out.

Originally Posted by Jack

I'm not very perceptive at the best of times, but I saw this coming a mile off. If you'd have asked me years ago, I'd have told you it would end up like this.

As soon as there was mention of putting everything on a database, catching everyone on a speed camera, tax increase, tax increase, hidden taxes, speed cameras, borrow loads of money to buy a house that's not worth it's value, people spending more than they're earning...etc, I knew it was going to end up like this.

We need someone assertive with their head screwed on right to come and say "what does this department do? Why are we paying for this? Why is this camera here? What is the WHGMSA department in Bristol doing? Where is all of our money going?"

to both comments. We need more common sense all round, in government and the public. It wasnt hard to tell house prices were not sustainable.

[montytronix]

you guys are missing the point because pensions were fukkced ppl needed to feel that their retirement is going to secure
the govt / advisers knew this was going to crash but as long as they were making a killing on stamp duty increased inhertance tax / death duty - why should they give a toss??

errr....because whinse interest rates accelerate due to credit crash ......the economy brakes / fades / locks / skids and everyones in the BROWN lol

Economic mirical my ass

[Andy_L]

Some fo you lot need to remember how we got to this position and to remember that the economy like everything has a lifecycle. Boom and bust, it's upto the goverments of the world to try and smooth out the peaks and troughs as best they can.

Huge demand in houses forced prices up, to frankly stupid levels, the major problem house buying in this country is that terms need to change, we need to start buying houses over much longer periods E.g. 50+ years. We also need to look at how other countries do mortgages and house purchasing and implement some of those. For example leasing may come back in.

People have stretched themselves and that's up to them but times change and in the current climate people need to pull in their belts and stop buying non-essentials.

I don't buy CD's, many clothes etc because i can't afford to, so I go without. Simple. In the same way we need less of this political nonsense in the UK, we need more people to start acting responsibly and not blaming it on the goverment (Bearing in mind it was the collapse of the sub-prime that caused the housing market to begine to decline, and China and India are causing the rise in fuel prices) or drinks manufactures or McDonalds etc.

[Bottlethroddy]

Ive said this on many a thread about similar things on many a forum. The underlying problem is we are BRITISH and that means tight stiff upperlippedness, bend over and take it like a man with no lubrication!

Things like this never happen in France, because if they dont like something, they damn well do something about it!

I'm self employed and since I started out on my own a few years back, ive been pretty much solid with work, apart from now, where I sit here typing this making prison rollups from an old packet of baccy, haveing not done any work for 3 weeks, living on a pot of money I saved for a rainy day (this rainy day lol). I cant even go temping because the money isnt even worth the extra paperwork!

[Andy_L]

So you're taking it like a man then Lee??

Makes you proud to be..................

[Bottlethroddy]

lol, you know me!!

[lethal]

Originally Posted by Andy_L

Huge demand in houses forced prices up, to frankly stupid levels,

Mainly due to buy-to-let mortgage lending at obscene levels by the banks. Sure there was demand for housing but that housing now stands empty. Thousands of empty flats up the road in Birmingham, similar situations in Manchester and Liverpool. It's readily apparent that the demand isn't for homes to live in as evidenced by the dozen or so derelict houses within walking distance of me now.

Originally Posted by Andy_L

the major problem house buying in this country is that terms need to change, we need to start buying houses over much longer periods E.g. 50+ years. We also need to look at how other countries do mortgages and house purchasing and implement some of those.

Ok, in some of the WEU, they buy their houses on 20 year fixed terms. I'm up for that.

Originally Posted by Andy_L

People have stretched themselves and that's up to them but times change and in the current climate people need to pull in their belts and stop buying non-essentials.

I don't buy CD's, many clothes etc because i can't afford to, so I go without.
Simple.

So you're on a one-man crusade to convert a recession into a depression? On the up side of that, at least nobody will give a s**t about the price of their mud huts in a depression.

Originally Posted by Andy_L

In the same way we need less of this political nonsense in the UK, we need more people to start acting responsibly and not blaming it on the goverment (Bearing in mind it was the collapse of the sub-prime that caused the housing market to begine to decline, and China and India are causing the rise in fuel prices) or drinks manufactures or McDonalds etc.

Ah yes, the wonderful Nu Labia line that it's all the US subprime fault. Subprime doesn't exist in the UK does it? The government didn't blow £100,000,000,000 of taxpayer's money on a bank that wasn't selling subprime mortgages did it?

Indeed, it's not like Gordon Brown let home prices "get out of control" by failing to make the FSA do it's job.

It's not like the government sat on it's arse for 11 years over nuclear power while our North Sea oil and gas reserves burned away, oh no, it's all China and India's fault.

Don't worry though, if the s**t really hits the fan, we can always fall back on our gold reserves which Gordon brown didn't sell off for a fraction of their potential worth.

Certainly, nobody could blame this government for it's utter incompetence and failure to fix the leaks while the sun was shining. No siree.

[Andy_L]

Lethal I think you're being a bit harsh on my comments tbh.

Originally Posted by lethal

Mainly due to buy-to-let mortgage lending at obscene levels by the banks. Sure there was demand for housing but that housing now stands empty. Thousands of empty flats up the road in Birmingham, similar situations in Manchester and Liverpool. It's readily apparent that the demand isn't for homes to live in as evidenced by the dozen or so derelict houses within walking distance of me now.

I won't deny there are places empty now as demand has gone but it WAS there and yes banks did lend money easily but that was then, buy-to let played a part yes but the number of singel families has increased dramtically as well.

Ok, in some of the WEU, they buy their houses on 20 year fixed terms. I'm up for that.

See I don't see the point in this comment you know what I'm saying and are making a smart arsed comment about shorter mortgages


So you're on a one-man crusade to convert a recession into a depression? On the up side of that, at least nobody will give a s**t about the price of their mud huts in a depression.

Not depression, realism - you can't have your cake and eat it all the time. We budget for things including food so whilst food prices go up we stay within budget cause we buy less. It's not ****ing rocket science.

Ah yes, the wonderful Nu Labia line that it's all the US subprime fault. Subprime doesn't exist in the UK does it? The government didn't blow £100,000,000,000 of taxpayer's money on a bank that wasn't selling subprime mortgages did it?

I'm no Labour fan, but why are you making the comment about Subprime when you know damn well it had a HUGE part to play in the banks stopping lending to each other which then meant mortgage rates shot up. Just the same as you know Northen Rock borrowed a lot of money through the US market

Indeed, it's not like Gordon Brown let home prices "get out of control" by failing to make the FSA do it's job.

Here you have a huge valid point, something should have happened but they chose to ride the wave instead.

As for the rest of your post I cannot disagree with what you say, my point is it's been and gone now we've got to look forward.

[CraigGreen]

Originally Posted by j17sparky

Have a word with CraigGreens mates, im sure they could do with a hand selling their merchendise

That was a piss take, not a fact!